The UK has finally left recession. As Gordon Brown repeatedly told us, we were one of the best placed economies to weather the storm – although quite how that tallies with being the last major economy to see growth and having the longest recession since current records began escapes me.

What is interesting to me, is how Jobseekers Allowance claims in Wandsworth appear (and I stress appear) to have followed economic growth. Previously there has been a lag, with unemployment increasing after the recession has ended. JSA is only a proxy for unemployment (many people who are unemployed choose not to claim, or are ineligible) but its recent plateau seems to mirror the plateau in the economy. Whether this is coincidence, or a sign that the nature of recessions has changed, remains to be seen.

It’s not a dynamic end to the recession – only 0.1% growth in the provisional estimate – but a positive sign.

Category: Regeneration Tags: GDP, Gordon Brown, Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession.
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Earlier this week I did a little analysis on the number of Jobseekers Allowance claims in Wandsworth and pointed out that while claims seemed to have plateaued nationally the trend was still upwards in Wandsworth. This week saw a drop of 172 claims (or 2.5%) in Wandsworth that perhaps gives some hope we aren’t going to continue the rise.

Claims are still up by 2,345 (or 54.6%) on this time last year. But the trend seems to be slowing (and maybe even reducing) and is holding up well against the London- and nation-wide rates.

Category: Regeneration, Wandsworth Tags: Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession.
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With the year drawing to a close, and hopefully the UK’s longest and deepest recession with it, I’ve spent a little time looking at how Wandsworth has coped.

I’ve repeatedly said that while Wandsworth isn’t immune to the effects of recession it is better placed than most to weather it.

The graphs below are various comparisons of Jobseekers Allowance claims. This isn’t a measure of unemployment (those figures aren’t produced for some months) since people can be unemployed without claiming JSA. And it isn’t the complete story; it ignores the take-up of other benefits and things like business failures or high street vacancies (Wandsworth has actually seen little change in these rates during the recession).

However, JSA can be a good indicator. So…

These graphs consider the period from January 2008 until October 2009, the represent (where appropriate) the highest rate in red, the lowest rate in green and Wandsworth in blue.

First up is a straight comparison between Wandsworth and the national rate of claims.

A good story for Wandsworth. Overall the gap between the lines has increased. In January Wandsworth’s rate was 0.4% below the national rate, it’s now 0.8% – overall JSA claims have risen less here than nationally, there would be about 800 more people signing on if we’d followed the national trend.

However, the past few months seems to show the national figure on a plateau, while Wandsworth has still increased a little. This may be because people who have lost their jobs in Wandsworth (which has a high proportion of people working in the financial sector) have been living off their own means before signing on, but that is just conjecture, the figures will need watching for a few months to see if the trend continues.

Next is a comparison between Wandsworth and the highest and lowest inner London borough rates.

Again, I think a good story. Wandsworth (the blue line) has the second lowest rate (Kensington and Chelsea, the green line). While our performance against them has deteroriated, we’ve seen the gap between us and the worst affected borough open from a 3% to a 3.5% difference so, proportionately, we’ve not been hit as hard as other inner London areas. And having the second lowest rate after Kensington and Chelsea is no cause for shame.

Finally, a comparison within the borough. This needs a slight caveat; the rates are calculated against smaller populations (the difference between thousands in a ward compared to 100,000 to 200,000 in most boroughs) so the rates can fluctuate more. However, over the period it shows a fairly clear pattern.

The story here is not so good. While we haven’t been as badly affected as some parts of the country those differences are reflected within Wandsworth. Ideally the rate of change would be the same, indicating a borough that is relatively cohesive. However, the gap between highest rate (Latchmere, in Battersea) and bottom (Thamesfield, in Putney) has widened from 3.5% to 4.4%. This is not an ideal situation and suggests some parts of the borough, because of poor transport links, access to employment opportunities or education and training are suffering more than than other parts. Exactly why things like the Employment and Skills Partnership are needed to target public resources to address those imbalances.

Overall, I think my repeated comment that Wandsworth has not been hit as hard as elsewhere has been true. And even Wandsworth’s worse wards haven’t been affected as badly as, say, Tower Hamlets or Hackney. But it does bring home that just performing better than elsewhere is rarely a cause for complacency.

Category: Regeneration Tags: Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, Latchmere, recession, Thamesfield, Unemployment.
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We are now in the longest recession this country has suffered.

No political points. The recession continues, unemployment goes up.

Last month we saw a small drop in Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claims, this month’s increase more than wipes out the drop.

Overall there was an increase of 140 JSA claims this month, a 2.1% rise. There are now 6,813 people signing on, an increase of 2,768 (or 68.4%) over the year.

And that’s just in a year. We haven’t seen any growth in the economy since 2007. The increase in JSA claims since then is 82.1%. It’s hard to see the benefits of our economy being ‘well-placed’ for this recession.

Category: Regeneration Tags: Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession, Unemployment.
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The growth in unemployment slowed nationally, but in Wandsworth it fell slightly in September. Not much, just 43, but that’s still a fall!

Overall there were 6,673 people claiming Jobseekers Allowance in Wandsworth in September. A fall of 43 (0.6%) on the previous month. Of course that is dwarfed by the steady increase in previous months. The total is still some 2,711 (68.4%) higher than this time in 2008.

Of course, small fluctuations are not much to get excited about, but so far they have tended to be favourable to Wandsworth. I’ll repeat my mantra: Wandsworth isn’t immune to recession, but is doing a lot better than many places during it.

Category: Regeneration Tags: Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession, Unemployment.
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As unemployment nationally rises to 2.47 million people the effects of the small dip in Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claims in Wandsworth has been more than lost with subsequent rises.

In August there were 6,716 people claiming JSA in Wandsworth, an increase of 219 (or 3.4%) on the previous month and up 2,754 (or 69.5%) on August 2008. The graph shows a fairly consistent rise over the past year.

I often point out that JSA and unemployment are not interchangeable. While everyone claiming JSA will be unemployed, it does not follow that everyone who is unemployed will claim JSA. To highlight the point nationally unemployment is 2.47 million, but JSA claims only 1.61 million – effectively there are 860,000 people choosing – for whatever reason – not to sign on.

It is difficult to make a similar comparison for Wandsworth, since the figures are not collected in the same way, instead unemployment for the whole year is calculated. However, to give an indication, unemployment for January to December 2008 (the most recent available) in Wandsworth is calculated at 9,600. The average of all the JSA claims for those 12 months was 3,939 – implying a significant proportion of Wandsworth residents were choosing not to register at their local job centre.

Category: Regeneration Tags: Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession, Unemployment.
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After last month’s small drop in Jobseekers Allowance claims the number rose again in July. However, the rise was small, and I will – again – say there is a lot to be positive about in Wandsworth. However, we cannot buck the trend entirely, so it was hoping a bit too much that we’d see another fall when the national backdrop is of continued rises.

The chart shows the climb, but apparent slowing, of JSA claims in Wandsworth between July 2008 and July 2009.

The The Wandsworth total of JSA claimaints (people actively signing on as unemployed) was 6,497 (a rate of 3.1%). This is an increase of 149 people, or 2.3%, on the month. And an increase of 2,637, or 68.3%, on the year.

Category: Regeneration Tags: Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession, Unemployment.
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The number of claims for Jobseekers’ Allowance in Wandsworth dropped, very marginally, in June.  Given that the national news is reporting a record rise in unemployment, the fact we’ve had a small drop in claims has to be good news.

The fall was small, just 82, and there are caveats (these are people claiming benefit, which isn’t the totality of unemployment) but as I have said before there is reason to be confident in Wandsworth.

I’ve also put together this chart, which shows the rate of claims over the past year for Wandsworth, London and Great Britain.

It shows two things.  First, Wandsworth has a significantly lower rate of JSA claims than London or Great Britain as a whole.  Second, and most importantly, the gap has widened.  Last year Wandsworth’s rates were 0.8% and 0.4% below London’s and Great Britain’s rates respectively.  This had increased to 1.1% and 1.0% this June.

Again, I can add caveats, Wandsworth’s economy is a small part of the nation and will be affected by the national recession.  And because it’s small it can be more susceptible to large swings.  However, although I am pessimistic about the recession nationally, I remain confident that Wandsworth can weather the storm better than many other places.  We’ve created a dynamic economy here; we aren’t immune to recession, but we can fight it better.

The Wandsworth total of JSA claimaints (people actively signing on as unemployed) was 6,348 (a rate of 3.1%).  This is a drop of 82 people, or 1.3% (or a -1.3% increase, as Gordon Brown would probably call it) on the month.

The figures are still considerably higher than last year, 2,607 extra claimants, an increase of 69.7%.

Category: Regeneration Tags: Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession, Unemployment.
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Gordon Brown’s economic miracle doesn’t seem to show any sign of slowing.  My observation that the rate of increase seemed to have slowed last month was shown to be idle conjecture this month as the rate grew again.

I will continue to say that Wandsworth seems to be weathering the recession better than most places.  There are a lot of reasons to be confident, indeed, part of my spot at Balham last Thursday was to highlight the reasons we should be positive in Wandsworth.  But that does not mean we aren’t being hit by the recession, nor does it make it any easier for those who are losing their jobs.

The Wandsworth total of Jobseekers Allowances claimaints (i.e. people who have signed on as unemployed, and excluding those who are unemployed but have chosen not to register) rose to 6,430 – a rate of 3.1%.  As I say every month, this still compares favourably to the London and national rates of 4.2% and 4.1% respectively.

The total was 341 higher than last month and 2,656 higher than this time last year, increases of 5.6% and 70.4% respectively.

Category: Regeneration Tags: Gordon Brown, Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession, Unemployment.
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The number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) in Wandsworth broke through the 6,000 mark in April.

The rate of increase was slower than previous months, not enough to say we’ve turned the corner, or even that we’re approaching the corner, but a smaller increase is good news nonetheless.

The total claiming JSA in April was 6,098, a rate of 3% which still compares favourably with the rates for London and nationally, both at 4.1%.

The total was 209 higher than last month and 2,390 higher than this time last year.  Increases of 3.5% and 64.5% respectively.

Category: Regeneration, Wandsworth Tags: Jobseekers Allowance, JSA, recession, Unemployment.
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