Comments on: Cllr Kim Caddy and the Southfields by-election

By: Sheerinp

Sheerinp — Tue, 29 May 2012 17:27:00 +0000

In reply to Alex. George Galloway won by a huge majority. Get over it.

By: Alex

Alex — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 16:59:00 +0000

That last paragraph is interesting in the context of the Bradford West by-election: a by-election since 2010; a swing of 36.6% from Labour to Respect; and a bigger swing from the defending party to the winner than in either Thamesfield or Southfields. (I can’t compare the increase in Labour’s vote in Bradford West to Southfields as there, er, wasn’t one.)

If you actually look at what James wrote (rather than what you think he wrote), he refers to “a swing away from us” i.e. the swing from the Conservtives to the other parties rather than just the swing from the Conservatives to Labour. The former approach is more meaningful in the context of a multi candidate election and in the context of the Lib Dem implosion in Southfields. Unfortunately for Labour, it also shows how resilient the Conservstive vote is proving to be and how Miliband is failing to convince the electorate that Labour, under his leadership, are a viable alternative.

Adam, it’s the same lack of attention to detail that worries so many voters in Southfields, Bradford and everywhere else.

By: Adam Gray

Adam Gray — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 15:14:00 +0000

Did you skip the maths lessons when you were at school, James? Let’s try that swing calculation again, shall we? Tory vote down 0.2%, Labour vote up 17.3%. That’s a total of 17.5%. Now halve it: 8.8%. That’s the swing from Conservative to Labour. Not 3.5%.

An 8.8% swing nets Labour two in Roehampton, three in Queenstown, three in Bedford and seats in Earlsfield, Nightingale and West Hill. If you regard a swing that would slash the Tory majority from 34 to 10 as a triumph James – well, I’ll be delighted.

It’s the same complacency and arrogance that produced the biggest swing in any by-election anywhere since 2010 in Thamesfield last year and the biggest increase in Labour’s vote in any by-election anywhere since 2010 in Southfields.